Highlights – Key Market Insights
- December corn hovers near $4.32 after testing resistance at $4.35, with harvest price insurance locked in at $4.22/bushel
- November Soybeans rally to $11.04 (as of 11/3 AM) on China trade deal expectations after Beijing commits to buy 12 million metric tons immediately
- Chicago wheat rebounds above $5.33 after briefly dipping below $5.00, supported by global export demand from Indonesia and Bangladesh
- WTI crude steadies near $61 after completing a bullish inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, keeping energy costs manageable
- China pledges massive soybean purchases – 25 million metric tons annually for three years following Trump-Xi summit breakthrough
Commodity Spotlights
🌽 Corn
- December futures consolidate around $4.32 with harvest 72% complete nationally, up from recent support at $4.14
- Strong export demand continues with sales 43% above last year and Ukraine corn exports plummeting to just 0.8 million metric tons in October
- Record U.S. yield expectations of 186.7 bushels per acre temper upside, though ending stocks projected at 2.1 billion bushels support floor prices
🌱 Soybeans
- China commits to buying 12 million metric tons between now and January, with 25 million metric tons pledged annually through 2028
- November beans averaged $10.35 throughout October for ECO harvest insurance, up 32 cents from last year but down 19 cents from spring
- Basis improvements noted in parts of the Midwest as China resumes purchases after months of sourcing from South America
🌾 Wheat
- December Chicago wheat rises 1.8% to $5.33¼ as traders reposition ahead of month-end, with spring wheat 94% harvested
- Export competition from Russia pressures prices, though U.S. values remain competitive globally with strong demand from Asia
- Winter wheat planting 11% complete, trailing average pace as dry conditions persist across parts of the Plains
🍚 Rice
- November rough rice holds steady near $10.24-$10.63/cwt, down 30% from last year amid heavy global supplies
- Arkansas harvest reaches approximately 15% complete with milling yields improving despite earlier weather challenges
- USDA raises ending stocks to 40.2 million cwt on weaker exports to Middle East and Latin America markets
Fuel & Input Cost Watch
- WTI crude settles around $61/barrel, testing neckline support after breaking above $62 resistance on technical patterns
- Diesel averages $3.70/gallon nationally, with EIA forecasting continued easing through 2026 on lower crude prices
- Fertilizer markets mixed – DAP reaches $921/ton (up 25% year-over-year), MAP at $913/ton, while urea eases to $601/ton
Risk Management Quick Take
China trade breakthrough offers price support but maintain disciplined hedging as Beijing’s 25 million metric ton annual commitment returns markets toward equilibrium. With corn ending stocks at 2.1 billion bushels and record yields expected, consider locking in fertilizer needs before phosphate prices climb further on tight global supplies and Chinese export restrictions.
Major Sources USDA AMS • USDA EIA • CME Group • DTN/Progressive Farmer • Reuters • AgWeb • Arkansas Row Crops Blog