Highlights – Key Market Insights
- WTI crude rebounded early Monday after last week’s drop, keeping fuel budgets manageable but volatile. Reuters
- On-highway diesel averaged $3.71/gal in the latest EIA print (10/06), easing a few cents week over week and supporting harvest logistics. U.S. Energy Information Administration
- Corn & soybeans saw pressure from expanding Midwest harvest, while wheat found only modest support; uncertainty is elevated amid federal data delays. agcanada.com
- Global wheat tone stayed heavy as EU soft wheat projections remain robust, keeping U.S. export competitiveness in check. Reuters
Commodity Spotlights
🌽 Corn
- Futures slipped on harvest pressure, with traders leaning on private indications while official reports are curtailed. agcanada.com
- Export inspections have been seasonally active, offering a partial cushion to weakness. Brownfield Ag News
- Local basis remains mixed by location as elevators manage arrival pace and river timing. DTN Progressive Farmer
🌱 Soybeans
- Soybeans eased, then steadied after a sharp Friday drop tied to U.S.–China trade headlines, keeping nearby rallies fragile. Zawya
- The active harvest continues to pressure board values even as processors keep bids competitive in spots. agcanada.com
- River & interior bids vary; check nearby terminals for basis opportunities into early week. AgWeb
🌾 Wheat
- Chicago wheat softened overall on ample global supply signals, with EU output ideas staying elevated. Reuters
- Short-covering pops have been brief, with charts still cautious as trade waits for normalized U.S. data flow. The Western Producer
- Export pace is respectable vs. last year, but competition remains intense. Morningstar
🍚 Rice
- Rough rice futures chopped within a tight band late week, with open interest edging higher and participation decent. AP News
- Cash/futures references show sideways to slightly softer closes through Oct 10; monitor board-to-basis relationships in Delta mills. Investing.com
- Arkansas market chatter focuses on milling yield consistency as harvest advances. arkansascrops.uada.edu
Fuel & Input Cost Watch
- WTI crude bounced early Monday after hitting five-month lows last week; energy volatility argues for staggered fuel coverage. Reuters
- National retail diesel printed $3.711/gal (10/06), down $0.043 on the week, easing trucking and drying costs. U.S. Energy Information Administration
- Fertilizer tone was split in early October reporting: urea/UAN easing, while DAP/MAP firmed, keeping phosphate risk on the radar. AMS
Risk Management Quick Take
Protect cash flow into peak harvest. Consider flooring a portion of corn/soybeans (e.g., puts or minimum-price contracts) while selling into basis strength where it appears; pair that with incremental diesel pre-buys given recent softness and crude volatility to steady drying/hauling costs. U.S. Energy Information Administration