Highlights – Key Market Insights
- December corn closed near $4.23 on Friday, up just ¾ cent for the week despite pressure from large U.S. supplies and trade uncertainty
- Soybeans rallied on China deal optimism, with November futures up 22¼ cents for the week closing Friday at $10.4175 as traders bet on potential breakthrough at Trump-Xi meeting
- Trump-Xi summit scheduled for Thursday in South Korea could unlock Chinese soybean purchases after months of boycott, with Treasury Secretary Bessent citing “substantial framework” for deal
- WTI crude held near $61-62/barrel, down from earlier highs but stabilizing as Middle East production swells and global inventories build
- Anhydrous ammonia jumped 8% month-over-month to $838/ton, leading fertilizer price increases ahead of 2026 planting season
🌽 Corn
- December futures settled at $4.23¼, down 4¾ cents Friday but maintaining support above the $4.20 level that’s served as October’s average
- Cash prices weakened to $3.83¾ nationally, down 4½ cents as harvest pressure combines with Argentina’s corn planting advancing to 33.8%
- Export support emerged versus Brazil despite Canada trade talks stalling after President Trump terminated discussions over diplomatic tensions
- Brazilian production estimates jumped 5 billion bushels according to CONAB, adding supply pressure that’s capping any meaningful rally attempts
🌱 Soybeans
- November futures gained 22¼ cents for the week, with traders positioning ahead of potential China trade breakthrough despite Friday’s minor pullback
- Cash beans averaged $9.73¾ nationally, with harvest price for crop insurance jumping to $10.22 in October, still below February’s base price
- September crush hit 197.86 million bushels, up 11.6% year-over-year and beating expectations while soyoil stocks dropped to nine-month lows
- China maintains 34% duty on U.S. soybeans with zero new-crop orders for 2025/26, keeping American supplies effectively priced out pending summit outcome
🌾 Wheat
- Chicago soft red gained 8-10 cents Thursday on China buying rumors and short covering, with Kansas hard red up 10-12 cents across contracts
- December futures trading near $522.64/bushel, up almost 2% Monday but still 6.5% below year-ago levels amid global supply abundance
- Russia and EU production pressures persist, with International Grains Council projecting 2025/26 world production at 827 million metric tons
- Black Sea offers stable at $231-235/ton FOB for Russian wheat while U.S. Gulf premiums hold steady at 90 cents over December futures
🍚 Rice
- November rough rice tumbled to $10.16/cwt, down over 10% for the month and 32% below last year as global competition intensifies
- CME November futures closed at $10.48, with long grain milled rice steady to weak while Arkansas harvest advances past expectations
- Carryover stocks up 35% year-over-year, marking nearly 40-year highs as India undercuts U.S. prices following export ban removal
- Arkansas harvest 79% complete by late September despite rain delays, but milling quality concerns persist from 2024 issues
Fuel & Input Cost Watch
- WTI crude steadied near $61.60/barrel Monday, recovering slightly after touching $60 support as China trade hopes offset oversupply concerns
- On-highway diesel averaged $3.76 nationally, holding above $3.70 across major farm states with minimal weekly movement
- Anhydrous ammonia surged to $838/ton, up 20% year-over-year and crossing $800 for first time since December 2023
- DAP reached $922/ton with MAP at $932, both trending higher while urea eased to $595/ton ahead of spring applications
- All eight major fertilizers cost more than last year, with UAN28 up 31% and UAN32 up 29% leading the year-over-year increases
Risk Management Quick Take
Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting offers potential game-changer for soybeans, but hedge expectations carefully as framework remains unsigned. Consider booking profitable corn sales into any post-summit rallies while basis firms seasonally. Lock nitrogen needs soon as anhydrous trends suggest further winter price increases ahead, and evaluate strip coverage on diesel before any Middle East disruptions tighten supplies into spring fieldwork.
Major Sources
USDA AMS • CME Group • DTN/Progressive Farmer • Reuters • AgWeb • Barchart • Arkansas Row Crops Blog • Trading Economics • Farm Progress • EIA