AcreHedge Weekly Commodity & Risk Management Report – October 6, 2025

Highlights – Key Market Insights

  • USDA Crop Progress showed harvest moving up with corn ~18% and soybeans ~19% complete last week, keeping fieldwork active where conditions allow. DTN Profit Finder

  • On-highway diesel averaged ~$3.75/gal in the latest weekly EIA update, a touch higher week-over-week, keeping trucking/drying budgets steady. U.S. Energy Information Administration

  • WTI crude firmed to start the week after a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike, helping keep fuel cost volatility contained for now. Reuters

  • Fertilizer trends were mixed: urea/UAN eased, while DAP/MAP edged higher in USDA’s latest bi-weekly pricing snapshot. AMS USDA

Commodity Spotlights

🌽 Corn

  • Harvest pace improved nationwide last week, helping basis and logistics normalize in parts of the Midwest as more new-crop supplies move. DTN Profit Finder

  • Futures liquidity and interest stayed solid late week, with open interest rising alongside active trade into month-end. AP News

  • Export & feed demand remain watch items, with ample expected U.S. supply keeping rallies in check on bounces. Reuters+1

🌱 Soybeans

  • Soy harvest advanced alongside corn, keeping elevator space and scheduling tight in active areas. DTN Profit Finder

  • Futures activity stayed brisk late week even as prices eased slightly, reflecting balanced near-term sentiment. AP News

  • China buying remains a swing factor, so basis strength may be local where export interest and crush pull beans. ADM Investor Services

🌾 Wheat

  • Wheat futures were mostly steady to slightly higher late week as traders weighed global supply headlines against U.S. competitiveness. Investing.com

  • Ongoing big-crop expectations abroad continue to pressure U.S. export bids, keeping rallies limited without fresh demand. The Western Producer

🍚 Rice

  • Arkansas harvest continues despite scattered rain, with milling quality still the chief concern for many growers. Stuttgart Daily Leader

  • Rough rice futures held in recent ranges into late week, offering orderly hedging opportunities around harvest timing. CME Group

Fuel & Input Cost Watch

  • WTI crude edged higher to start the week after the modest OPEC+ move, a path that tempers but doesn’t spike farm fuel costs. Reuters

  • Retail diesel averaged $3.754/gal last week (+$0.005), keeping hauling and drying budgets largely steady. U.S. Energy Information Administration

  • Urea/UAN drifted lower while DAP/MAP firmed, suggesting selective pre-buys in phosphorus and patience on nitrogen where storage allows. AMS USDA

Risk Management Quick Take

Set a floor into active harvest but keep some upside: modest put floors or min-price contracts can defend revenue while you work basis/local bids, and staggered pre-buys on diesel or MAP/DAP can steady fall input costs without overcommitting.