AcreHedge Weekly Commodity & Risk Management Report – September 15, 2025

USDA lifted 2025 corn production to a record and increased harvested acres, although optimism for demand and speculation of lowered yield from dry conditions persisting until harvest have provided support for prices
Oil held gains around the low $60s (WTI) after strikes on Russian energy facilities, but the move has been modest so far for farm fuel budgets.
U.S. retail diesel hovered in the high-$3.70s/gal, steady week over week, helping keep drying and hauling costs predictable.
DAP fertilizer firmed ~5% to about $860/ton, while other products were mixed—lock in phosphorus on dips if it fits your plan.

December corn hovered near the low $4.20s late last week as traders absorbed a record crop and stable demand cues.
WASDE’s bigger acreage offset minor yield trims, reinforcing ample new-crop supplies heading into harvest, although dry conditions if they persist until harvest might reduce yield per acre
Export and basis signals were mixed at the Gulf in recent AMS reports, a reminder to watch local bids closely as harvest ramps.

November soybeans eased toward ~$10.25–$10.35 through mid-week, reflecting big U.S. supplies and soft China buying.
Export-elevator basis was uneven this week, suggesting nearby weakness in some corridors while river logistics improve.
Crop-condition slippage late August plus hefty acreage keeps rallies contained unless export pace improves.

U.S. wheat stayed under pressure as ample global supply and competitive exporters weighed on bids.
Canada’s recent data showed changing stocks and bids, underscoring ongoing price pressure from North American and Black Sea flows.

Rough rice futures softened week-on-week, with Nov around the mid-$11s/cwt in USDA’s weekly summary.
Arkansas rice harvest advanced quickly—ahead of 5-year average in early September—with growers reporting decent early yields.

WTI crude held near $62–$63 after Russian facility hits; energy markets remain headline-sensitive but moves to date are modest for farm fuel.
U.S. on-highway diesel averaged high-$3.70s/gal, keeping drying/transport math steady into harvest starts.
DAP up ~5% w/w to ~$860/ton; other fertilizers mixed, suggesting selective pre-buys on phosphorus may pencil.

Set a floor before bins fill. Consider put spreads or minimum-price contracts on a portion of expected production to defend revenue while leaving basis and carry to work for you; on inputs, layer small pre-buys of diesel and phosphorus to cap spikes without over-committing.

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