Highlights – What Matters Now
- Markets turned sharply lower after July 4 as widespread Midwest rains and cooler forecasts removed weather premium from corn and soybeans.
- Corn and soybeans gave back last week’s rally, with prices dropping 12–25¢ on improved yield prospects and fading trade optimism.
- Wheat followed lower, pressured by harvest progress and news that Russia dropped its export tax, increasing global competition.
- Fuel and fertilizer prices ticked higher, tightening farm margins just as grain prices fell.
- Tariff tensions linger ahead of the July 9 deadline, adding uncertainty to export prospects for corn, soybeans, and rice.
Commodity Spotlights
🌽 Corn
- December futures fell to ~$4.24/bu, down ~13¢ as favorable weather improved the outlook during the key pollination window.
- USDA rated 73% of corn good/excellent, up from last week and well above 2024’s level, signaling strong yield potential.
- Trade jitters continue, with China largely absent and U.S. threats of higher tariffs keeping global buyers cautious.
- Harvest pressure isn’t here yet, but fund selling picked up, and technical charts broke lower, suggesting more downside risk unless a new catalyst appears.
🌱 Soybeans
- November beans dropped to ~$10.25–$10.30, shedding most of last week’s gains as timely rains boosted yield prospects.
- Talk of major Chinese purchases fizzled, and with no new trade deals, the market was left flat-footed.
- Biofuel hopes cooled off as energy markets softened and policy news remained vague, erasing recent soyoil momentum.
- Export sales remain weak, especially to China, putting more pressure on fall prices unless trade talks break through.
🌾 Wheat
- Chicago wheat slipped to ~$5.47/bu, after a brief rally last week. Global pressure and harvest weight pulled prices down.
- Winter wheat harvest reached 37%, adding seasonal supply pressure despite a small drop in crop ratings.
- Russia eliminated its wheat export tax, making Black Sea grain even more competitive on the world stage.
- Export sales were strong last week, but sustaining that pace will be tough with more cheap wheat hitting global markets.
🍚 Rice
- U.S. rough rice stayed flat near $12.60/cwt, with little movement in domestic or export markets.
- India’s exports are flowing again, adding pressure to world prices as government stockpiles hit record highs.
- Japan may face U.S. tariff pressure over rice import limits — no changes yet, but trade tensions are rising.
- The U.S. crop looks steady, with good Delta conditions and no major weather threats as of now.
Fuel & Input Cost Watch
- Crude oil climbed back to ~$67–$68/barrel, pushing diesel to ~$3.73/gal nationally, up from early June levels.
- Fertilizer costs remain stubbornly high, especially nitrogen (UAN32 over $500/ton for the first time since 2023).
- Input prices are outpacing grain prices, tightening margins and adding pressure to make efficient pre-harvest decisions.
- Interest rates and financing costs continue to elevate the cost of carrying inputs, especially for those locking in fuel or fertilizer on credit.
Risk Management Quick Take
With big crops expected and few bullish surprises so far, many growers are making small sales on rallies and exploring downside protection. Uncertainty around tariffs, global supply, and Friday’s USDA report could trigger quick price swings. Having plans (and offers) ready could make all the difference.
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