Week of June 30, 2025
Highlights — What Mattered This Week
- Grain prices stayed under pressure. Good U.S. weather and large global supplies kept corn, soybeans, and wheat prices weak all week. A modest Friday bounce came as traders covered short positions ahead of USDA reports.
- June rains improved soil moisture across the Midwest. Most of the Corn Belt has good moisture now, though parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas remain dry. This sets up corn for a solid start to pollination — but July weather will be critical.
- Fuel prices dropped sharply. Crude oil fell more than 10% on easing Middle East tensions and OPEC+ supply signals. Diesel followed lower, cutting fuel costs at a key time for fieldwork.
- Nitrogen prices briefly spiked on supply fears. Urea surged midweek after Iran halted gas flows, but prices eased as production resumed. This volatility is a reminder of how quickly input costs can change.
Commodity Spotlights
🌽 Corn
- December corn futures fell to multi-year lows before rebounding slightly. Good growing weather and Brazil’s large safrinha harvest weighed on prices. Many farmers are holding off on sales, waiting to see if July brings a weather rally.
- Crop conditions are strong. About 70% of U.S. corn is rated good to excellent, and soil moisture has improved in most areas. The next key watch is whether heat or dryness emerges during pollination in July.
- Brazil’s record corn crop adds pressure. With so much corn hitting world markets, U.S. exporters face stiff competition, limiting upside price potential unless U.S. weather turns stressful.
🌱 Soybeans
- Soybeans fell to a 3-month low around $10.20. Ample moisture and large South American supplies kept buyers on the sidelines.
- U.S. soybeans off to a solid start. Early-season dryness is mostly gone, and crops look good heading into July. However, traders know August weather will ultimately determine yields.
- China’s been quiet on U.S. purchases. Without stronger export demand, soy prices are struggling to find support.
🌾 Wheat
- Wheat prices slid toward contract lows. Harvest selling and large global supplies pressured the market. Chicago wheat hovered near $5.40 as harvest deliveries added to supply.
- Global wheat output estimates rose again. This reinforces the view of ample world supplies, which keeps a lid on prices. For U.S. growers, that means tough competition on exports and continued low-price risk.
🍚 Rice
- U.S. rice prices stayed flat this week. Steady demand and stable global supplies kept the market quiet.
- India’s record stocks weigh on global rice prices. With plenty of rice in storage and another good crop shaping up, there’s little room for a U.S. price rally unless something disrupts trade.
Fuel & Input Cost Watch
- Crude oil fell below $65/barrel, pulling diesel lower. Farmers are seeing some relief in fuel costs as a result, helping with harvest and spraying expenses.
- Fertilizer markets jittery but settling. Urea prices spiked briefly on Iran’s gas halt but calmed once production resumed. Still, the event shows how sensitive nitrogen markets remain to global shocks.
- Other input costs mostly steady. Phosphate, potash, and chemicals didn’t see much movement this week.
Risk Management Quick Take
Many farmers are locking in diesel prices while they’re low, guarding against a rebound. On grain, most are cautious — waiting to see how USDA reports and July weather shape up before making major sales decisions.
